Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | GT +550 DUKE -1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GT +4 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -7.3 (+11.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.4 (-10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -5.1 (+9.1) | 146.4 (-6.4) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -4.0 (+8.0) | 146.4 (-6.4) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -4.9 (+8.9) | 148.0 (-8.0) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -5.5 (+9.5) | 149.0 (-9.0) | 38% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | DUKE 85 – 79 GT |
| Mar 13, 2025 | DUKE 78 – 70 GT |
| Dec 21, 2024 | DUKE 82 – 56 GT |
| Jan 13, 2024 | DUKE 84 – 79 GT |
| Jan 28, 2023 | DUKE 86 – 43 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 15-5 |
| Home | 8-7 | 15-3 |
| Away | 4-9 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 66.3 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#193) | 12.6 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#80) | 0.70 (#126) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.92 (#44) | 1.54 (#97) |
| RPI | 0.557 (#96) | 0.522 (#147) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 40.2 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 14.8 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 12.7% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 76.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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