Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | GT +900 DUKE -1700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +26 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -18.3 (-7.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.7 (+0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -13.7 (-12.3) | 138.0 (+0.0) | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -13.7 (-12.3) | 138.0 (+0.0) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -12.9 (-13.1) | 136.4 (+1.6) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -13.8 (-12.2) | 135.8 (+2.2) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | DUKE 85 – 79 GT |
| Mar 13, 2025 | DUKE 78 – 70 GT |
| Jan 13, 2024 | DUKE 84 – 79 GT |
| Dec 2, 2023 | GT 72 – 68 DUKE |
| Jan 28, 2023 | DUKE 86 – 43 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-17 | 35-4 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 19-1 |
| Home | 14-6 | 17-0 |
| Away | 2-9 | 10-1 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 8-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 83.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 62.8 |
| Massey | 1.3 (#139) | 23.8 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#261) | 3.14 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#252) | 4.68 (#10) |
| RPI | 0.451 (#261) | 0.638 (#18) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 41.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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