Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -27.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | DUKE -8000 GT +2200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +6 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -29.3 (-23.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.3 (+14.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -22.9 (-16.9) | 149.1 (+14.9) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -21.2 (-15.2) | 150.6 (+13.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -20.5 (-14.5) | 145.6 (+18.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -22.4 (-16.4) | 147.6 (+16.4) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2025 | DUKE 78 – 70 GT |
| Dec 21, 2024 | DUKE 82 – 56 GT |
| Jan 13, 2024 | DUKE 84 – 79 GT |
| Dec 2, 2023 | GT 72 – 68 DUKE |
| Jan 28, 2023 | DUKE 86 – 43 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | GT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-3 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 2-16 |
| Home | 15-0 | 10-9 |
| Away | 10-1 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 10-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L12 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 25.8 (#3) | 0.5 (#165) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.28 (#9) | -0.12 (#180) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 7.15 (#5) | -0.50 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.667 (#9) | 0.483 (#204) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | GT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.3% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 42.2 | 40.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.65 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.6% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.1% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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