Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | DUKE -2500 GT +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +5 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -20.2 (-15.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (+14.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -16.4 (-11.4) | 146.7 (+16.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -16.2 (-11.2) | 147.9 (+15.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -17.0 (-12.0) | 147.8 (+15.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -17.8 (-12.8) | 148.0 (+15.0) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2025 | DUKE 85 – 79 GT |
| Mar 13, 2025 | DUKE 78 – 70 GT |
| Dec 21, 2024 | DUKE 82 – 56 GT |
| Dec 2, 2023 | GT 72 – 68 DUKE |
| Jan 28, 2023 | DUKE 86 – 43 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | GT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 7-13 |
| Home | 15-3 | 8-7 |
| Away | 7-4 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 17.6 (#9) | 1.5 (#143) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.18 (#34) | 0.79 (#108) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.99 (#28) | 0.97 (#114) |
| RPI | 0.602 (#33) | 0.550 (#96) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | GT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 40.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.76 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 14.1% |
| DRB% | 75.7% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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