Betting Lines
| Spread | UNA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | UNA -120 UNF +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNA +13 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | UNA -3.8 (+9.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.6 (+11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNA -3.1 (+9.9) | 158.0 (+11.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNA -2.6 (+10.4) | 155.1 (+13.9) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNA -3.2 (+9.8) | 155.8 (+13.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNA -2.8 (+10.2) | 156.8 (+12.2) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2026 | UNF 105 – 91 UNA |
| Feb 14, 2025 | UNA 83 – 70 UNF |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UNA 90 – 84 UNF |
| Feb 9, 2024 | UNA 79 – 74 UNF |
| Feb 5, 2022 | UNF 71 – 58 UNA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNA | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 9-4 | 11-2 |
| Away | 8-10 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 79.0 |
| Massey | -6.9 (#288) | -7.1 (#294) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#200) | -0.78 (#258) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#236) | -1.23 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.485 (#202) | 0.472 (#235) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNA | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 13.0% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 65.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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