Betting Lines
| Spread | UNA -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 166.5 Under |
| Money | UNA -600 UNF +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNA +13 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | UNA -11.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.5 (-17.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNA -9.3 (+3.7) | 162.1 (-9.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNA -11.0 (+2.0) | 164.1 (-11.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNA -10.5 (+2.5) | 162.8 (-9.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNA -11.3 (+1.7) | 163.1 (-10.1) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2026 | UNF 105 – 91 UNA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UNA 90 – 84 UNF |
| Feb 9, 2024 | UNA 79 – 74 UNF |
| Jan 28, 2023 | UNA 91 – 78 UNF |
| Feb 5, 2022 | UNF 71 – 58 UNA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNA | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 8-10 |
| Home | 16-1 | 8-6 |
| Away | 7-10 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 85.7 |
| Massey | 2.5 (#126) | -5.4 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#155) | -0.27 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#149) | -0.57 (#212) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#152) | 0.492 (#193) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNA | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 13.0% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 54.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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