Betting Lines
| Spread | UNA -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Over |
| Money | UNF +130 UNA -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNA +6 | 174 | Lost |
| Massey | UNA -2.4 (-3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.3 (+6.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNA -2.3 (-3.7) | 158.7 (+15.3) | 41% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNA -2.0 (-4.0) | 158.4 (+15.6) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNA -2.4 (-3.6) | 157.5 (+16.5) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNA -2.0 (-4.0) | 158.2 (+15.8) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2026 | UNF 105 – 91 UNA |
| Feb 14, 2025 | UNA 83 – 70 UNF |
| Feb 9, 2024 | UNA 79 – 74 UNF |
| Jan 28, 2023 | UNA 91 – 78 UNF |
| Feb 5, 2022 | UNF 71 – 58 UNA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNF | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 14-4 |
| Home | 8-6 | 16-1 |
| Away | 7-10 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 77.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 85.7 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#241) | 1.9 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#200) | -0.24 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#202) | -0.18 (#184) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#195) | 0.476 (#215) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNF | UNA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 15.5% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 65.5% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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