Betting Lines
| Spread | UNA -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | UNA -520 UNF +390 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNF +14 | 196 | Lost |
| Massey | UNA -8.7 (-22.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.7 (+36.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNA -8.5 (-22.5) | 147.6 (+48.4) | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNA -8.4 (-22.4) | 151.3 (+44.7) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNA -7.8 (-21.8) | 149.4 (+46.6) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNA -7.9 (-21.9) | 148.0 (+48.0) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2025 | UNA 83 – 70 UNF |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UNA 90 – 84 UNF |
| Feb 9, 2024 | UNA 79 – 74 UNF |
| Jan 28, 2023 | UNA 91 – 78 UNF |
| Feb 5, 2022 | UNF 71 – 58 UNA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNA | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-21 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 5-13 |
| Home | 5-8 | 5-8 |
| Away | 4-12 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.0 | 89.6 |
| Massey | -8.8 (#295) | -14.0 (#345) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.36 (#287) | -3.94 (#362) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.83 (#286) | -5.36 (#362) |
| RPI | 0.428 (#296) | 0.409 (#326) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNA | UNF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.0% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 57.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 13.7% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 58.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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