Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | INST -250 UNI +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +8 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | INST -7.6 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (+3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -4.9 (+3.1) | 144.6 (+5.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -3.8 (+4.2) | 143.1 (+6.9) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -4.7 (+3.3) | 144.4 (+5.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | INST -4.5 (+3.5) | 144.8 (+5.2) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | UNI 81 – 60 INST |
| Jan 2, 2026 | UNI 75 – 66 INST |
| Feb 12, 2025 | UNI 88 – 73 INST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UNI 74 – 56 INST |
| Mar 9, 2024 | INST 94 – 72 UNI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 9-11 |
| Home | 11-4 | 8-8 |
| Away | 7-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.6 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 70.6 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#119) | -0.6 (#179) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#161) | -0.07 (#184) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#164) | 0.03 (#169) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#186) | 0.501 (#173) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 77.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 16.4% |
Game Analysis
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