Betting Lines
| Spread | JAX -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | CARK +170 JAX -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JAX +10 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | JAX -5.2 (-4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.4 (-1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JAX -4.8 (-5.2) | 136.7 (+1.3) | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JAX -5.6 (-4.4) | 139.3 (-1.3) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JAX -4.7 (-5.3) | 139.0 (-1.0) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JAX -4.5 (-5.5) | 139.6 (-1.6) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2026 | CARK 62 – 60 JAX |
| Feb 14, 2025 | JAX 77 – 62 CARK |
| Jan 18, 2025 | JAX 72 – 62 CARK |
| Feb 9, 2024 | JAX 59 – 55 CARK |
| Mar 4, 2022 | JAX 79 – 69 CARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CARK | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 13-16 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 6-12 |
| Home | 6-8 | 7-6 |
| Away | 2-13 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 61.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.4 | 64.7 |
| Massey | -11.2 (#342) | -2.5 (#224) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.38 (#295) | 0.32 (#142) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.12 (#321) | 0.24 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#294) | 0.537 (#107) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CARK | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 7.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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