Betting Lines
| Spread | JAX -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | JAX -1600 CARK +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JAX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JAX +10 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | JAX -15.5 (-5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.8 (-6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JAX -11.5 (-1.5) | 140.1 (-6.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JAX -11.2 (-1.2) | 141.3 (-7.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JAX -11.7 (-1.7) | 138.8 (-4.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JAX -12.5 (-2.5) | 139.1 (-5.1) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2026 | CARK 62 – 60 JAX |
| Feb 14, 2025 | JAX 77 – 62 CARK |
| Feb 9, 2024 | JAX 59 – 55 CARK |
| Jan 28, 2023 | JAX 74 – 64 CARK |
| Mar 4, 2022 | JAX 79 – 69 CARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JAX | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 4-14 |
| Home | 11-3 | 7-7 |
| Away | 7-9 | 1-16 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 79.4 |
| Massey | -0.4 (#165) | -12.1 (#343) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.34 (#143) | -2.99 (#353) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#121) | -3.59 (#349) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#112) | 0.351 (#358) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JAX | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 37.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 22.2% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 56.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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