Betting Lines
| Spread | JAX -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | CARK +600 JAX -1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JAX +15 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | JAX -9.1 (-5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (-1.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JAX -9.5 (-5.5) | 140.6 (-1.6) | 18% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JAX -8.1 (-6.9) | 139.6 (-0.6) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JAX -9.1 (-5.9) | 139.8 (-0.8) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JAX -10.0 (-5.0) | 140.9 (-1.9) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2026 | CARK 62 – 60 JAX |
| Jan 18, 2025 | JAX 72 – 62 CARK |
| Feb 9, 2024 | JAX 59 – 55 CARK |
| Jan 28, 2023 | JAX 74 – 64 CARK |
| Mar 4, 2022 | JAX 79 – 69 CARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CARK | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-24 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 12-6 |
| Home | 7-7 | 11-3 |
| Away | 1-16 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.4 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -13.0 (#345) | -0.8 (#176) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.92 (#353) | 0.17 (#162) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.47 (#354) | 0.45 (#142) |
| RPI | 0.367 (#356) | 0.512 (#159) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CARK | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.9% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.3% | 37.2% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 35.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.9% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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