Betting Lines
| Spread | CARK -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | CARK -380 JAX +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CARK +2 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | CARK -10.3 (-8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.3 (-18.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CARK -7.0 (-5.0) | 137.8 (-15.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CARK -6.2 (-4.2) | 141.4 (-19.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CARK -6.3 (-4.3) | 136.4 (-14.4) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CARK -7.1 (-5.1) | 138.1 (-16.1) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2025 | JAX 77 – 62 CARK |
| Jan 18, 2025 | JAX 72 – 62 CARK |
| Feb 9, 2024 | JAX 59 – 55 CARK |
| Jan 28, 2023 | JAX 74 – 64 CARK |
| Mar 4, 2022 | JAX 79 – 69 CARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CARK | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-1 | 8-4 |
| Away | 6-10 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 69.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.0 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#215) | -9.8 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.35 (#285) | -1.15 (#267) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.63 (#272) | -1.74 (#280) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#286) | 0.462 (#244) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CARK | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 56.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
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