Betting Lines
| Spread | JAX -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | JAX -250 CARK +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JAX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JAX +4 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | JAX -9.1 (-5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.4 (-35.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JAX -7.7 (-3.7) | 144.7 (-30.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JAX -7.9 (-3.9) | 145.6 (-31.6) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JAX -7.4 (-3.4) | 146.2 (-32.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JAX -6.8 (-2.8) | 146.5 (-32.5) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 16, 2026 | CARK 62 – 60 JAX |
| Feb 14, 2025 | JAX 77 – 62 CARK |
| Jan 18, 2025 | JAX 72 – 62 CARK |
| Jan 28, 2023 | JAX 74 – 64 CARK |
| Mar 4, 2022 | JAX 79 – 69 CARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JAX | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 5-11 |
| Home | 11-3 | 5-10 |
| Away | 4-14 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 80.3 |
| Massey | -8.2 (#302) | -14.0 (#344) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#270) | -1.91 (#327) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.17 (#275) | -2.37 (#326) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#265) | 0.389 (#341) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JAX | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 54.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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