Betting Lines
| Spread | PENN -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | PENN -167 HARV +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PENN +15 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | PENN -2.2 (+12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.4 (+15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PENN -1.3 (+13.7) | 136.2 (+14.8) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PENN -0.0 (+15.0) | 135.4 (+15.6) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PENN -1.5 (+13.5) | 136.7 (+14.3) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PENN -1.0 (+14.0) | 137.7 (+13.3) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | PENN 62 – 60 HARV |
| Feb 28, 2026 | PENN 64 – 61 HARV |
| Jan 19, 2026 | HARV 64 – 63 PENN |
| Feb 22, 2025 | HARV 79 – 78 PENN |
| Jan 20, 2025 | PENN 82 – 67 HARV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PENN | HARV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-13 | 14-14 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 5-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 5-7 |
| Away | 6-9 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#161) | 1.6 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.33 (#211) | 0.18 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#186) | 0.23 (#152) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#169) | 0.520 (#145) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PENN | HARV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.8% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 76.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 16.6% |
Game Analysis
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