Betting Lines
| Spread | KSU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | KSU -200 FLA +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | KSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | KSU +14 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | KSU -6.0 (+8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (-32.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | KSU -6.9 (+7.1) | 145.8 (-31.8) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | KSU -6.8 (+7.2) | 143.9 (-29.9) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | KSU -7.3 (+6.7) | 143.4 (-29.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | KSU -7.0 (+7.0) | 144.0 (-30.0) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | KSU | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 16-1 | 10-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 13.2 (#22) | 10.7 (#39) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.39 (#3) | 1.45 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.91 (#6) | 1.88 (#64) |
| RPI | 0.643 (#5) | 0.562 (#73) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | KSU | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 25.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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