Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
| Money | NAVY -163 AMER +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +4 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | NAVY -3.9 (-7.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.4 (+11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -3.5 (-7.5) | 130.8 (+11.2) | 60% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -3.2 (-7.2) | 127.9 (+14.1) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -2.7 (-6.7) | 132.3 (+9.7) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -2.7 (-6.7) | 133.2 (+8.8) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | NAVY 82 – 73 AMER |
| Jan 13, 2026 | AMER 65 – 51 NAVY |
| Mar 12, 2025 | AMER 74 – 52 NAVY |
| Feb 27, 2025 | NAVY 68 – 60 AMER |
| Jan 3, 2025 | NAVY 81 – 58 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-13 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-6 | 8-6 |
| Away | 9-7 | 9-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 65.9 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#206) | -2.0 (#214) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#234) | -0.16 (#190) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#235) | -0.36 (#206) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#222) | 0.486 (#198) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 48.9% |
| 3PT% | 39.0% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 30.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 7.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 55.9% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 22.2% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 15.3% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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