Betting Lines
| Spread | GWEB -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | GWEB -350 HPU +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GWEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GWEB +28 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | GWEB -10.3 (+17.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.6 (+2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GWEB -9.1 (+18.9) | 143.0 (+1.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GWEB -8.1 (+19.9) | 142.1 (+1.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GWEB -7.5 (+20.5) | 142.5 (+1.5) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GWEB -8.2 (+19.8) | 142.3 (+1.7) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | HPU 81 – 59 GWEB |
| Feb 14, 2026 | HPU 112 – 87 GWEB |
| Jan 8, 2026 | HPU 104 – 49 GWEB |
| Mar 7, 2025 | HPU 85 – 64 GWEB |
| Feb 22, 2025 | HPU 90 – 67 GWEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GWEB | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 6-12 |
| Home | 8-5 | 10-5 |
| Away | 6-10 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.7 | 77.2 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#181) | -7.5 (#302) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.65 (#244) | -1.13 (#284) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#241) | -1.72 (#297) |
| RPI | 0.467 (#247) | 0.432 (#303) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GWEB | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.8% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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