Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -26.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +55 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -30.3 (+24.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.9 (-15.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -22.2 (+32.8) | 156.5 (-3.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -23.9 (+31.1) | 158.3 (-5.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -30.7 (+24.3) | 159.3 (-6.3) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -28.2 (+26.8) | 155.9 (-2.9) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | HPU 81 – 59 GWEB |
| Feb 14, 2026 | HPU 112 – 87 GWEB |
| Mar 7, 2025 | HPU 85 – 64 GWEB |
| Feb 22, 2025 | HPU 90 – 67 GWEB |
| Jan 12, 2025 | HPU 96 – 55 GWEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 31-5 | 4-29 |
| Conference | 15-1 | 1-15 |
| Home | 17-1 | 3-10 |
| Away | 7-2 | 0-16 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.4 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.8 | 86.7 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#85) | -18.9 (#358) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#141) | -3.76 (#359) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#139) | -5.10 (#360) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#163) | 0.404 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.62 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.4% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 31.3% | 24.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 59.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 63.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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