Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | HPU -2500 GWEB +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +21 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -11.6 (+9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.5 (-5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -11.3 (+9.7) | 148.4 (+0.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -10.6 (+10.4) | 146.4 (+2.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -11.3 (+9.7) | 147.9 (+1.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -11.8 (+9.2) | 149.2 (-0.2) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | HPU 81 – 59 GWEB |
| Feb 14, 2026 | HPU 112 – 87 GWEB |
| Jan 8, 2026 | HPU 104 – 49 GWEB |
| Feb 22, 2025 | HPU 90 – 67 GWEB |
| Jan 12, 2025 | HPU 96 – 55 GWEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 5-11 |
| Home | 16-1 | 5-6 |
| Away | 7-3 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.2 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 78.1 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#90) | -5.5 (#256) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.26 (#78) | -0.95 (#257) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#81) | -1.17 (#256) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#56) | 0.473 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | GWEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.6% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.7% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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