Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | GWEB +290 HPU -380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GWEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +23 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | HPU -7.4 (-15.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.7 (-0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -7.3 (-15.7) | 154.1 (+2.9) | 26% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -7.0 (-16.0) | 154.3 (+2.7) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -6.6 (-16.4) | 154.7 (+2.3) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -7.5 (-15.5) | 156.4 (+0.6) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | HPU 81 – 59 GWEB |
| Feb 14, 2026 | HPU 112 – 87 GWEB |
| Jan 8, 2026 | HPU 104 – 49 GWEB |
| Mar 7, 2025 | HPU 85 – 64 GWEB |
| Jan 12, 2025 | HPU 96 – 55 GWEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GWEB | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 14-2 |
| Home | 5-6 | 16-1 |
| Away | 3-13 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 81.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -4.9 (#246) | 5.6 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#242) | 1.25 (#79) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#245) | 1.47 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#215) | 0.563 (#63) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GWEB | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 56.4% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 30.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.4% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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