Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -25.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | GWEB +3000 HPU -10000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GWEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +25 | 199 | Lost |
| Massey | HPU -26.9 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.9 (+35.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -18.6 (-6.4) | 152.2 (+46.8) | 12% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -14.7 (-10.3) | 155.1 (+43.9) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -16.0 (-9.0) | 153.1 (+45.9) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -16.3 (-8.7) | 155.1 (+43.9) | 12% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | HPU 81 – 59 GWEB |
| Jan 8, 2026 | HPU 104 – 49 GWEB |
| Mar 7, 2025 | HPU 85 – 64 GWEB |
| Feb 22, 2025 | HPU 90 – 67 GWEB |
| Jan 12, 2025 | HPU 96 – 55 GWEB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GWEB | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-29 | 31-5 |
| Conference | 1-15 | 15-1 |
| Home | 3-10 | 17-1 |
| Away | 0-16 | 7-2 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 86.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 86.7 | 72.8 |
| Massey | -21.8 (#363) | 8.1 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.58 (#363) | 0.75 (#98) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.85 (#364) | 0.75 (#109) |
| RPI | 0.387 (#355) | 0.537 (#94) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GWEB | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.64 | 1.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 12.6% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 32.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.0% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 23.3% |
| DRB% | 63.3% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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