Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | UNM -1000 AF +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +8 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -14.3 (-6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (+9.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -11.5 (-3.5) | 144.8 (+9.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -11.2 (-3.2) | 144.7 (+9.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -12.6 (-4.6) | 147.2 (+6.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -12.3 (-4.3) | 147.1 (+6.9) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | UNM 98 – 61 AF |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UNM 91 – 49 AF |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UNM 92 – 71 AF |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNM 88 – 53 AF |
| Mar 13, 2024 | UNM 82 – 56 AF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | AF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 15-5 | 10-9 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.2 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 67.1 |
| Massey | 11.5 (#33) | 0.7 (#159) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.51 (#18) | 0.10 (#165) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.12 (#21) | 0.09 (#165) |
| RPI | 0.610 (#25) | 0.473 (#233) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | AF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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