Betting Lines
| Spread | IDHO -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | IDHO -138 IDST +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDHO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IDST +4 | 186 | Lost |
| Massey | IDHO -2.8 (-6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.6 (+44.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IDHO -1.5 (-5.5) | 144.0 (+42.0) | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IDST -0.3 (-3.7) | 140.9 (+45.1) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IDHO -1.6 (-5.6) | 142.0 (+44.0) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | IDHO -1.6 (-5.6) | 144.0 (+42.0) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | IDHO 99 – 69 IDST |
| Jan 16, 2026 | IDST 76 – 68 IDHO |
| Feb 28, 2025 | IDST 69 – 65 IDHO |
| Feb 1, 2025 | IDST 87 – 71 IDHO |
| Feb 17, 2024 | IDHO 55 – 53 IDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDHO | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 8-10 |
| Home | 6-10 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 72.1 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#271) | -5.0 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.49 (#305) | -1.47 (#302) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.78 (#301) | -1.28 (#272) |
| RPI | 0.385 (#347) | 0.413 (#325) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDHO | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 29.2 | 30.7 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 19.5% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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