Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | DEP +350 MARQ -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +20 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | MARQ -10.6 (-9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.4 (-0.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -9.8 (-10.2) | 156.2 (+1.8) | 19% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -8.6 (-11.4) | 156.6 (+1.4) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -9.6 (-10.4) | 157.9 (+0.1) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -9.5 (-10.5) | 157.8 (+0.2) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | DEP 62 – 51 MARQ |
| Jan 17, 2026 | DEP 80 – 75 MARQ |
| Feb 12, 2025 | MARQ 68 – 58 DEP |
| Jan 15, 2025 | MARQ 85 – 83 DEP |
| Feb 22, 2024 | MARQ 105 – 71 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-23 | 29-7 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 17-3 |
| Home | 7-8 | 16-1 |
| Away | 2-12 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 79.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#156) | 14.9 (#13) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.35 (#141) | 2.49 (#19) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#143) | 3.49 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#156) | 0.598 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 50.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 57.4% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 66.6% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.4% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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