Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | USM -300 TXST +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +9 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | USM -11.9 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.6 (-3.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -10.9 (-1.9) | 131.4 (-6.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -8.1 (+0.9) | 128.9 (-3.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -10.7 (-1.7) | 133.7 (-8.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -11.1 (-2.1) | 134.1 (-9.1) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | USM 81 – 77 TXST |
| Jan 17, 2026 | TXST 74 – 67 USM |
| Jan 9, 2026 | USM 80 – 70 TXST |
| Jan 18, 2025 | TXST 85 – 82 USM |
| Jan 11, 2025 | USM 92 – 88 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 16-19 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 6-12 |
| Home | 15-0 | 4-10 |
| Away | 8-7 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.5 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#80) | -1.7 (#208) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.58 (#57) | -0.24 (#199) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.86 (#66) | -0.35 (#203) |
| RPI | 0.591 (#35) | 0.481 (#215) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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