Betting Lines
| Spread | UAPB -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | UAPB -333 MVSU +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAPB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAPB +16 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | UAPB -11.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.9 (+30.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAPB -9.2 (+6.8) | 132.9 (+27.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAPB -9.2 (+6.8) | 133.7 (+26.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAPB -9.3 (+6.7) | 131.9 (+28.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UAPB -9.4 (+6.6) | 132.8 (+27.2) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MVSU 70 – 69 UAPB |
| Jan 31, 2026 | UAPB 78 – 70 MVSU |
| Mar 2, 2025 | UAPB 83 – 58 MVSU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MVSU 79 – 76 UAPB |
| Mar 2, 2024 | UAPB 78 – 69 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAPB | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 5-27 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 4-14 |
| Home | 8-5 | 4-6 |
| Away | 2-16 | 1-19 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L9 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 61.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -8.7 (#317) | -16.1 (#358) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#294) | -3.00 (#358) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.80 (#302) | -3.44 (#354) |
| RPI | 0.436 (#292) | 0.362 (#355) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAPB | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.5% | 38.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.8% | 31.7% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.3% | 42.5% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 23.7% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.4% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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