Betting Lines
| Spread | TNTC -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | TNTC -250 LR +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TNTC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LR +2 | 180 | Lost |
| Massey | TNTC -7.8 (-9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.2 (+28.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNTC -5.2 (-7.2) | 151.8 (+28.2) | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNTC -6.2 (-8.2) | 150.0 (+30.0) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNTC -6.0 (-8.0) | 148.4 (+31.6) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TNTC -6.0 (-8.0) | 150.1 (+29.9) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | TNTC 87 – 77 LR |
| Jan 1, 2026 | LR 77 – 58 TNTC |
| Feb 14, 2025 | LR 79 – 75 TNTC |
| Jan 18, 2025 | LR 77 – 71 TNTC |
| Mar 2, 2024 | LR 81 – 43 TNTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TNTC | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-5 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-11 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 80.9 |
| Massey | -6.3 (#286) | -10.6 (#334) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.28 (#292) | -2.48 (#349) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.62 (#291) | -2.91 (#347) |
| RPI | 0.437 (#291) | 0.362 (#354) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TNTC | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 43.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 55.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.1% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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