Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | USA -110 TROY +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +17 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -0.7 (+17.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -0.2 (+16.8) | 137.1 (-0.1) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -0.0 (+17.0) | 136.1 (+0.9) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -0.1 (+16.9) | 136.1 (+0.9) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -0.4 (+17.4) | 137.1 (-0.1) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | USA 65 – 54 TROY |
| Jan 3, 2026 | TROY 59 – 49 USA |
| Jan 25, 2025 | TROY 65 – 55 USA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | USA 64 – 63 TROY |
| Jan 27, 2024 | TROY 83 – 79 USA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-10 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#180) | 3.6 (#116) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#267) | 0.21 (#152) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.08 (#261) | 0.48 (#135) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#239) | 0.523 (#139) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 20.2% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 13.0% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 22.0% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 28.7% |
Game Analysis
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