Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | APP -450 ARST +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +12 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | APP -11.5 (+0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 124.6 (-10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -9.9 (+2.1) | 131.7 (-17.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -8.2 (+3.8) | 130.8 (-16.8) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -9.7 (+2.3) | 132.0 (-18.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -9.3 (+2.7) | 131.0 (-17.0) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2025 | ARST 65 – 55 APP |
| Mar 10, 2024 | ARST 67 – 65 APP |
| Mar 1, 2024 | APP 80 – 57 ARST |
| Feb 26, 2022 | ARST 62 – 60 APP |
| Jan 27, 2022 | APP 61 – 54 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 4-14 |
| Home | 10-7 | 10-8 |
| Away | 6-7 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 63.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#169) | -8.2 (#311) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.15 (#188) | -1.45 (#299) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.00 (#174) | -1.90 (#310) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#162) | 0.412 (#326) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 24.7% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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