Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +7 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | APP -4.3 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.4 (-17.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -2.1 (+4.9) | 134.9 (-19.9) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -3.2 (+3.8) | 135.1 (-20.1) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -1.4 (+5.6) | 135.7 (-20.7) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -2.0 (+5.0) | 137.5 (-22.5) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2025 | ARST 65 – 55 APP |
| Mar 10, 2024 | ARST 67 – 65 APP |
| Mar 1, 2024 | APP 80 – 57 ARST |
| Jan 28, 2023 | APP 63 – 51 ARST |
| Feb 26, 2022 | ARST 62 – 60 APP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 18-11 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-7 |
| Home | 11-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-7 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 68.8 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#167) | -1.2 (#193) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#125) | 1.06 (#94) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.70 (#123) | 1.02 (#108) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#91) | 0.536 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 16.8% | 27.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.8% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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