Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | APP -333 ARST +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +23 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | APP -9.1 (+13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (-15.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -9.8 (+13.2) | 152.1 (-15.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -8.3 (+14.7) | 149.8 (-12.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -10.3 (+12.7) | 148.7 (-11.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -9.5 (+13.5) | 150.3 (-13.3) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2025 | ARST 65 – 55 APP |
| Mar 10, 2024 | ARST 67 – 65 APP |
| Jan 28, 2023 | APP 63 – 51 ARST |
| Feb 26, 2022 | ARST 62 – 60 APP |
| Jan 27, 2022 | APP 61 – 54 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 20-17 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 11-7 |
| Home | 15-0 | 10-3 |
| Away | 8-5 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 7.0 (#84) | 1.3 (#149) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#61) | 0.02 (#164) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#77) | 0.23 (#155) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#46) | 0.504 (#165) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.28 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.9% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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