Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | ARST -380 APP +290 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +10 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -7.1 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.3 (-13.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -5.7 (+4.3) | 135.4 (-15.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -5.7 (+4.3) | 135.8 (-15.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -5.8 (+4.2) | 132.3 (-12.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -6.1 (+3.9) | 132.8 (-12.8) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 10, 2024 | ARST 67 – 65 APP |
| Mar 1, 2024 | APP 80 – 57 ARST |
| Jan 28, 2023 | APP 63 – 51 ARST |
| Feb 26, 2022 | ARST 62 – 60 APP |
| Jan 27, 2022 | APP 61 – 54 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 8-6 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 64.6 |
| Massey | 5.4 (#94) | 1.8 (#135) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.13 (#86) | 0.30 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.48 (#86) | 0.32 (#150) |
| RPI | 0.567 (#62) | 0.537 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 40.6 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.0% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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