Betting Lines
| Spread | CLE -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | CLE -163 PFW +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CLE +5 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | CLE -6.3 (-1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.5 (+19.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLE -5.5 (-0.5) | 140.5 (+12.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CLE -4.7 (+0.3) | 141.4 (+11.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLE -5.4 (-0.4) | 139.8 (+13.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CLE -5.1 (-0.1) | 141.1 (+11.9) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | PFW 92 – 86 CLE |
| Jan 4, 2026 | PFW 74 – 71 CLE |
| Mar 1, 2025 | CLE 68 – 57 PFW |
| Jan 31, 2025 | CLE 68 – 58 PFW |
| Feb 8, 2024 | CLE 75 – 72 PFW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLE | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 9-11 |
| Home | 13-3 | 9-6 |
| Away | 7-9 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.2 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#143) | -1.2 (#197) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#167) | 0.04 (#174) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.20 (#157) | -0.05 (#180) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#180) | 0.506 (#164) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLE | PFW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.3% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 65.2% | 75.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 15.8% |
Game Analysis
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