Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | WIS +100 ILL -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +10 | 112 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -2.4 (-7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.2 (-20.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -1.1 (-8.9) | 131.4 (-19.4) | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -1.4 (-8.6) | 127.7 (-15.7) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -1.1 (-8.9) | 131.4 (-19.4) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -0.8 (-9.2) | 131.1 (-19.1) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | WIS 91 – 88 ILL |
| Feb 11, 2026 | WIS 92 – 90 ILL |
| Feb 19, 2025 | WIS 95 – 74 ILL |
| Dec 11, 2024 | ILL 86 – 80 WIS |
| Mar 17, 2024 | ILL 93 – 87 WIS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIS | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 11-9 |
| Home | 11-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 6-6 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 74.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 7.0 (#75) | 13.0 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#43) | 2.03 (#36) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.27 (#47) | 2.46 (#37) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#52) | 0.565 (#71) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIS | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 39.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 21.6% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 16.4% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 44.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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