Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | ILL -290 WIS +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +6 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -13.3 (-7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.0 (+9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -8.7 (-2.7) | 153.9 (+12.1) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -9.8 (-3.8) | 155.9 (+10.1) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -10.5 (-4.5) | 153.8 (+12.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -9.8 (-3.8) | 152.6 (+13.4) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | WIS 91 – 88 ILL |
| Feb 11, 2026 | WIS 92 – 90 ILL |
| Feb 19, 2025 | WIS 95 – 74 ILL |
| Mar 17, 2024 | ILL 93 – 87 WIS |
| Mar 2, 2024 | ILL 91 – 83 WIS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 27-10 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 13-7 |
| Home | 13-4 | 14-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.6 | 80.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 19.9 (#7) | 11.0 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#63) | 2.82 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.49 (#57) | 4.37 (#19) |
| RPI | 0.558 (#86) | 0.647 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 47.4 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.44 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 33.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.6% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 77.1% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.6% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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