Betting Lines
| Spread | WIS -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | WIS -167 ILL +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +8 | 174 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -0.5 (-7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.8 (+17.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -0.2 (-7.8) | 152.5 (+21.5) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIS -1.1 (-9.1) | 156.4 (+17.6) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WIS -1.4 (-9.4) | 157.1 (+16.9) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIS -0.7 (-8.7) | 154.5 (+19.5) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | WIS 91 – 88 ILL |
| Feb 11, 2026 | WIS 92 – 90 ILL |
| Feb 19, 2025 | WIS 95 – 74 ILL |
| Dec 11, 2024 | ILL 86 – 80 WIS |
| Mar 17, 2024 | ILL 93 – 87 WIS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIS | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 29-9 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-3 | 15-3 |
| Away | 3-9 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 8-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 83.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.0 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 13.0 (#26) | 16.7 (#15) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.02 (#37) | 2.31 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.68 (#27) | 3.09 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#28) | 0.610 (#15) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIS | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 41.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.22 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 36.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.8% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 12.6% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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