Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | ILL -375 WIS +295 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIS +3 | 179 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -7.6 (-10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.3 (+17.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -6.7 (-9.7) | 155.8 (+23.2) | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -5.5 (-8.5) | 162.5 (+16.5) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -5.9 (-8.9) | 158.2 (+20.8) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -5.9 (-8.9) | 156.8 (+22.2) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | WIS 92 – 90 ILL |
| Feb 19, 2025 | WIS 95 – 74 ILL |
| Dec 11, 2024 | ILL 86 – 80 WIS |
| Mar 17, 2024 | ILL 93 – 87 WIS |
| Mar 2, 2024 | ILL 91 – 83 WIS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 8-2 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 83.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 23.4 (#6) | 15.8 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.46 (#12) | 2.86 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.64 (#8) | 3.48 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.628 (#12) | 0.593 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.63 | 1.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 12.8% |
| ORB% | 39.1% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.7% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.4% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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