I like bread and butter. I like toast and jam. "Bread and Butter" - The Newbeats
Big Ten Conference · State Farm Center · February 11, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread ILL -9.5 Away covered
O/U 153.5 Over
Money ILL -600 / WIS +440
Model Predictions
Spread Total ILL win
Actual WIS +2 182 Lost
Massey ILL -13.1 (-15.1)
Massey Totals 160.4 (+21.6)
Bradley-Terry 91%
Weighted B-T 95%
Efficiency Plus ML ILL -12.6 (-14.6) 160.5 (+21.5) 85%
Baseline Tuned ML ILL -13.4 (-15.4) 154.6 (+27.4) 88%
Baseline ML ILL -12.2 (-14.2) 156.7 (+25.3) 88%
Baseline Plus ML ILL -12.4 (-14.4) 155.3 (+26.7) 87%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 13, 2026 WIS 9188 ILL
Feb 19, 2025 WIS 9574 ILL
Dec 11, 2024 ILL 8680 WIS
Mar 17, 2024 ILL 9387 WIS
Mar 2, 2024 ILL 9183 WIS

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ILL WIS
Overall 28-9 24-11
Conference 15-5 14-6
Home 14-3 15-2
Away 8-2 6-5
Neutral 6-4 3-4
Last 5 4-1 3-2
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 83.2 83.0
Avg Pts Against 68.8 76.1
Massey 23.5 (#5) 13.4 (#42)
Bradley-Terry 4.15 (#8) 2.33 (#41)
W. Bradley-Terry 5.44 (#6) 2.97 (#42)
RPI 0.649 (#8) 0.584 (#51)
Shooting & Four Factors ILL WIS
FG% 46.4% 44.9%
3PT% 35.7% 34.5%
REB / G 41.4 36.8
OREB / G 13.3 10.5
AST / TO 1.59 1.65
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 55.5% 53.8%
TOV% 13.8% 13.6%
ORB% 39.1% 29.8%
FT Rate 27.1% 27.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 46.7% 50.3%
Opp TOV% 11.5% 14.5%
DRB% 73.4% 74.0%
Opp FT Rate 13.5% 23.8%

Game Analysis

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