Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | ILL -600 WIS +440 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIS +2 | 182 | Lost |
| Massey | ILL -13.1 (-15.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.4 (+21.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -12.4 (-14.4) | 155.3 (+26.7) | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -12.6 (-14.6) | 160.5 (+21.5) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -13.4 (-15.4) | 154.6 (+27.4) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -12.2 (-14.2) | 156.7 (+25.3) | 88% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | WIS 91 – 88 ILL |
| Feb 19, 2025 | WIS 95 – 74 ILL |
| Dec 11, 2024 | ILL 86 – 80 WIS |
| Mar 17, 2024 | ILL 93 – 87 WIS |
| Mar 2, 2024 | ILL 91 – 83 WIS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 8-2 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.2 | 83.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 23.5 (#5) | 13.4 (#42) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.15 (#8) | 2.33 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.44 (#6) | 2.97 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.649 (#8) | 0.584 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 41.4 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 1.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 39.1% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 11.5% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.5% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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