Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | ILL -163 WIS +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +6 | 180 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -3.0 (+3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.6 (+24.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -2.9 (+3.1) | 154.0 (+26.0) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -2.4 (+3.6) | 154.9 (+25.1) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -2.4 (+3.6) | 153.2 (+26.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -0.6 (+5.4) | 151.8 (+28.2) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | WIS 91 – 88 ILL |
| Feb 11, 2026 | WIS 92 – 90 ILL |
| Feb 19, 2025 | WIS 95 – 74 ILL |
| Dec 11, 2024 | ILL 86 – 80 WIS |
| Mar 2, 2024 | ILL 91 – 83 WIS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-9 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-9 |
| Home | 15-3 | 14-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 70.0 |
| Massey | 17.0 (#14) | 14.1 (#22) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.57 (#11) | 2.18 (#26) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.35 (#8) | 2.76 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.608 (#13) | 0.590 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 41.5 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.4% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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