Betting Lines
| Spread | WIS -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | WIS -180 ILL +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIS +21 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | WIS -1.7 (+19.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.4 (+7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIS -4.7 (+16.3) | 159.2 (+9.8) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIS -4.0 (+17.0) | 163.6 (+5.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIS -5.1 (+15.9) | 160.4 (+8.6) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIS -4.0 (+17.0) | 158.6 (+10.4) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | WIS 91 – 88 ILL |
| Feb 11, 2026 | WIS 92 – 90 ILL |
| Dec 11, 2024 | ILL 86 – 80 WIS |
| Mar 17, 2024 | ILL 93 – 87 WIS |
| Mar 2, 2024 | ILL 91 – 83 WIS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIS | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 12-8 |
| Home | 14-3 | 13-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 83.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 18.2 (#15) | 19.6 (#12) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.19 (#12) | 2.46 (#34) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.26 (#10) | 3.33 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.633 (#11) | 0.582 (#46) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIS | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 44.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 29.7% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 12.9% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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