Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | PRES +110 WIN -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +18 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | PRES -0.1 (-18.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (-4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -1.2 (-16.8) | 133.7 (+0.3) | 39% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -0.8 (-17.2) | 134.0 (+0.0) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -1.0 (-17.0) | 135.8 (-1.8) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -1.1 (-16.9) | 136.8 (-2.8) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | WIN 73 – 71 PRES |
| Feb 28, 2026 | WIN 74 – 70 PRES |
| Jan 24, 2026 | WIN 82 – 72 PRES |
| Feb 20, 2025 | WIN 81 – 77 PRES |
| Jan 29, 2025 | WIN 76 – 67 PRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRES | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-27 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 10-8 |
| Home | 5-9 | 10-4 |
| Away | 0-15 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L18 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.8 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 75.8 |
| Massey | -9.5 (#325) | -6.1 (#278) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.95 (#356) | -1.05 (#279) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.08 (#350) | -1.38 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.352 (#360) | 0.444 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRES | WIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 29.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.3% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 63.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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