Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | WOF +125 SAM -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WOF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WOF +8 | 162 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -0.8 (+8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (+16.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -0.2 (+8.2) | 147.7 (+14.3) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -0.0 (+8.0) | 146.5 (+15.5) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -0.3 (+8.3) | 148.0 (+14.0) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -0.7 (+8.7) | 149.9 (+12.1) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | SAM 97 – 80 WOF |
| Jan 21, 2026 | WOF 88 – 78 SAM |
| Feb 15, 2025 | SAM 76 – 68 WOF |
| Jan 25, 2025 | SAM 77 – 61 WOF |
| Feb 29, 2024 | WOF 91 – 69 SAM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WOF | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 15-3 |
| Home | 12-4 | 13-3 |
| Away | 4-11 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.3 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -2.1 (#218) | 2.2 (#131) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#222) | 0.11 (#163) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#234) | 0.27 (#149) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#242) | 0.504 (#167) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WOF | SAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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