Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | UCF -213 TEM +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEM +7 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | UCF -9.6 (-16.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.5 (+12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -7.9 (-14.9) | 137.1 (+9.9) | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -8.5 (-15.5) | 137.8 (+9.2) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -7.9 (-14.9) | 139.5 (+7.5) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -7.7 (-14.7) | 140.8 (+6.2) | 75% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2023 | TEM 57 – 55 UCF |
| Jan 6, 2022 | TEM 66 – 62 UCF |
| Dec 16, 2021 | UCF 65 – 48 TEM |
| Jan 14, 2021 | TEM 62 – 55 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | TEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 11-6 | 9-7 |
| Away | 5-7 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 9.0 (#57) | 2.9 (#125) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.34 (#69) | 0.57 (#120) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#67) | 0.56 (#129) |
| RPI | 0.568 (#68) | 0.546 (#89) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | TEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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