Betting Lines
| Spread | MER -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | CIT +125 MER -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MER +9 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | MER -0.5 (-8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.5 (+2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MER -0.4 (-8.6) | 137.5 (+1.5) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MER -0.9 (-8.1) | 135.5 (+3.5) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIT -0.3 (-9.3) | 136.4 (+2.6) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MER -0.4 (-8.6) | 136.8 (+2.2) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | MER 70 – 54 CIT |
| Jan 8, 2026 | MER 101 – 63 CIT |
| Feb 20, 2025 | MER 62 – 52 CIT |
| Jan 30, 2025 | MER 80 – 46 CIT |
| Mar 8, 2024 | MER 84 – 76 CIT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIT | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 6-12 |
| Home | 5-9 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 67.3 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#307) | -4.0 (#239) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#275) | -0.84 (#262) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.30 (#277) | -0.98 (#253) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#260) | 0.459 (#256) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIT | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.0 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 20.5% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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