Betting Lines
| Spread | RAD -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | UPST +188 RAD -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RAD +3 | 107 | Lost |
| Massey | RAD -5.3 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.5 (-26.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RAD -4.6 (+1.6) | 134.0 (-27.0) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RAD -4.9 (+1.9) | 131.7 (-24.7) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RAD -4.4 (+1.4) | 134.7 (-27.7) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RAD -4.4 (+1.4) | 134.0 (-27.0) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 27, 2026 | RAD 71 – 59 UPST |
| Dec 31, 2025 | RAD 76 – 69 UPST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | RAD 79 – 69 UPST |
| Jan 11, 2025 | RAD 80 – 67 UPST |
| Mar 7, 2024 | RAD 67 – 60 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-2 | 10-3 |
| Away | 4-12 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 66.2 |
| Massey | -7.3 (#297) | 1.6 (#140) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#259) | -0.16 (#189) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#269) | -0.15 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#262) | 0.500 (#177) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | RAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 29.7 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 21.2% |
| DRB% | 64.1% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.8% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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