Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | UCR -300 UCSD +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +7 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | UCR -10.3 (-3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (-1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCR -9.0 (-2.0) | 143.3 (-6.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCR -9.2 (-2.2) | 141.1 (-4.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCR -8.0 (-1.0) | 142.0 (-5.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCR -8.8 (-1.8) | 142.8 (-5.8) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | UCSD 72 – 66 UCR |
| Jan 11, 2026 | UCSD 69 – 66 UCR |
| Feb 7, 2025 | UCSD 91 – 71 UCR |
| Jan 19, 2025 | UCR 85 – 81 UCSD |
| Feb 23, 2024 | UCSD 77 – 65 UCR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 5-13 |
| Home | 9-4 | 4-10 |
| Away | 9-7 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.4 | 67.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#151) | -5.6 (#266) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#101) | -1.01 (#276) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#144) | -1.29 (#274) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#124) | 0.461 (#253) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 24.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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