Betting Lines
| Spread | TENN -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | TENN -250 TEX +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TENN +11 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | TENN -9.1 (+1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.6 (+17.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TENN -8.8 (+2.2) | 135.9 (+17.1) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TENN -7.9 (+3.1) | 135.0 (+18.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TENN -8.6 (+2.4) | 138.1 (+14.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TENN -8.4 (+2.6) | 137.3 (+15.7) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | TENN 85 – 71 TEX |
| Mar 14, 2025 | TENN 83 – 72 TEX |
| Jan 11, 2025 | TENN 74 – 70 TEX |
| Mar 24, 2024 | TENN 62 – 58 TEX |
| Jan 30, 2022 | TEX 52 – 51 TENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TENN | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 29-9 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 14-2 | 17-1 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 7-3 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 78.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 57.9 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 22.0 (#2) | 16.4 (#7) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.89 (#12) | 3.10 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.43 (#15) | 3.80 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.631 (#12) | 0.627 (#15) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TENN | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 38.3% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 38.5% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.1% | 23.2% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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