Betting Lines
| Spread | TENN -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | TENN -750 TEX +525 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TENN +14 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | TENN -10.7 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.1 (-1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TENN -11.7 (+2.3) | 151.9 (+4.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TENN -10.5 (+3.5) | 148.4 (+7.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TENN -10.7 (+3.3) | 151.6 (+4.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TENN -10.6 (+3.4) | 153.2 (+2.8) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2025 | TENN 83 – 72 TEX |
| Jan 11, 2025 | TENN 74 – 70 TEX |
| Mar 24, 2024 | TENN 62 – 58 TEX |
| Jan 28, 2023 | TENN 82 – 71 TEX |
| Jan 30, 2022 | TEX 52 – 51 TENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TENN | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 12-5 |
| Away | 5-5 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 81.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 76.1 |
| Massey | 17.9 (#16) | 10.9 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.15 (#44) | 0.44 (#135) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.43 (#32) | 1.11 (#104) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#68) | 0.474 (#218) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TENN | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 43.1 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 15.1 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 45.1% | 37.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 37.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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