Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | HOU -1400 CIN +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +6 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -17.7 (-11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.1 (+14.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -13.6 (-7.6) | 134.2 (+9.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -15.5 (-9.5) | 129.8 (+14.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -13.9 (-7.9) | 132.8 (+11.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -15.1 (-9.1) | 133.2 (+10.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | HOU 76 – 54 CIN |
| Jan 3, 2026 | HOU 67 – 60 CIN |
| Mar 1, 2025 | HOU 73 – 64 CIN |
| Feb 28, 2024 | HOU 67 – 59 CIN |
| Feb 10, 2024 | HOU 67 – 62 CIN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 33-4 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 11-7 |
| Home | 16-2 | 16-3 |
| Away | 11-0 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 57.5 | 69.7 |
| Massey | 22.2 (#1) | 8.1 (#65) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.37 (#4) | 0.92 (#94) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.73 (#2) | 1.18 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.631 (#11) | 0.548 (#88) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 37.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 38.6% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.7% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.3% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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